Monday, October 10, 2005

Does a fish need to be smart...

...to evolve into a frog? I really don't think it's a matter of intelligence.

In the natural state of random variations in multiple generations, enough of an experiment domain is created to create the "freak" that is the new successful breed. The important part is the experiment domain. With lots and lots of options, lots and lots of information, lots and lots of possibilities, the one that works the best, ( provides the most attractive options via the path of least resistance) wins.

What is happening right now? Massive amounts of information is going everywhere. People are chatting in real-time with people across the planet in a different language through online interpreting software. There is more information out there than any one person could possibly consume, and this domain of information is growing daily. Not only that, but the technology for accessing it and catagorizing it is improving exponentially year by year. Think about how far we've come in 20 years? Comepare that to the 20 years before that. Compare that with the 20 years before that. 20 years before that? How about the years 1800-1820? What's happening to society? There is more inovation in one day than there was in the entire 20 year period of 1800-1820. What is the natural consequence of this? Easy: It is harder and harder to control the information.

This will happen if people get smarter. It will also happen if they get stupider. It has more to do with the difficulty of controlling them than their intelligence. Once it becomes impossible to control the flow of information that is used to control the masses, a natural neo-tribalism will occur. People will flock together based on ideology, and a massive movement for de-centralization (and probably anti-centralization) of anything non-critical will ensue. Call it "neo-libertarianism". This phenominom should be world-wide. With massive information, there are no secrets. In a world with no secrets, it's hard to maintain domination.

Ok, what's the natural consequence of massive decentralization? A new form of interdependance.

What will that bring? I don't know, but I think it will happen, and I think it will be good. I have to have faith in the human race. You see, I'm a member.

Of course, it's just a theory.

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